Bank of Russia keeps its key rate at 14 per cent as price growth speeds up
Seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8.0 per cent annualised in the third quarter, up from 4.8, and the bank says risks to inflation lean upwards.
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The Bank of Russia's Board of Directors kept the key rate at 14.00 per cent on 23 October, the bank said, as seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 8.0 per cent in annualised terms in the third quarter against 4.8 per cent in the second.
The Moscow Times reported that all 20 analysts in a poll it cited had expected the hold.
The bank gave inflation as the reason. Its release said the similar indicator for core inflation, on the same seasonally adjusted and annualised basis, rose to 6.2 per cent from 4.5 per cent in the second quarter, and that annual inflation stood at 6.8 per cent as of 19 October. It expects annual inflation of 7.1 to 7.6 per cent at the end of 2026. Underlying price growth has not yet decreased and remains at 5 to 6 per cent in annualised terms, the release said, and inflation expectations remain high.
On activity, the bank described the economy as growing at a moderate pace in the second half of 2026, with the labour market gradually easing. It said monetary conditions are moderately tight and that "proinflationary risks prevail over disinflationary ones on the medium-term horizon."
The baseline scenario of its medium-term forecast assumes the key rate will average 12.5 to 13.5 per cent a year in 2027 and that inflation returns to 4.0 per cent that year. The bank's rate-setting calendar lists two more dates: on 5 November it publishes the summary of the key rate discussion and commentary on the forecast, and the next rate decision falls on 18 December, per the bank's calendar of key rate decisions.
For readers comparing rates across the region, the Bank of Russia's real rate is 7.2 percentage points, a Data Desk calculation from the key rate and the 19 October inflation reading. That sits just below Uzbekistan's 7.6, the widest in our comparison of real policy rates at six central banks, which did not include Russia. Kazakhstan's central bank, which cut its base rate to 15.75 per cent in October and signalled a pause, trades with Russia as its key trading partner, as our September report on its statement noted.