Fitch revises Georgia's outlook to positive and affirms BB rating

Fitch Ratings affirmed Georgia's sovereign rating at BB and revised its outlook to positive, the National Bank of Georgia said on 31 October, naming record international reserves and a stronger external position among the main reasons.

Fitch put Georgia's gross international reserves at a record USD 8.2bn in September 2026, USD 2bn more than at the end of 2025, the central bank's summary of the report says. The agency linked the increase to the central bank's policy and said it was driven by a narrower current account deficit, capital inflows, prudent monetary policy and improved confidence, which raised local residents' demand for GEL-denominated assets. It said the current account deficit kept narrowing in the first half of 2026 and called the de-dollarisation trends positive.

The agency also pointed to the banking sector. It put the sector's return on equity at 23.2 per cent as of August, its Tier 1 capital ratio at 17.6 per cent and its non-performing loan ratio at 2.5 per cent, and said strong growth continued to support banks' financial metrics. Fitch forecasts economic growth of 7.5 per cent in 2026, slowing in 2027 and 2028 towards a medium-term potential of 5 per cent.

The move puts Fitch alongside S&P Global Ratings, which affirmed Georgia at BB and moved its outlook to positive, the central bank said on 8 August. S&P also cited reserve accumulation, and the central bank's summary of its report said the current account deficit had narrowed to an all-time low of 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2025. The central bank had reported reserves of USD 8.14bn as of August, 56.4 per cent more than a year earlier, with monetary gold worth USD 1,149.2m, or 14.1 per cent of the total. The S&P summary put the central bank's net foreign currency purchases at about USD 2.1bn in January to June 2026.

For banks and issuers in Georgia the revision adds to recent central bank news covered here: the policy rate held at 8.25 per cent in September and the mutual market access project of the central bank and the regulator of the Astana International Financial Centre. The figures above are those the central bank attributes to Fitch's report.