Hungary's debt agency lifts 2026 net financing need to HUF 7,110 billion

Hungary's Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) has raised its 2026 net financing need to HUF 7,110 billion after the government proposed a wider budget deficit, it said in a statement on 29 September.

The increase is HUF 1,665 billion on the HUF 5,445 billion in the plan published in December 2025. The new figure equals the cash-flow-based deficit set out in the bill amending the 2026 Budget Act that was submitted to parliament, the agency said. It added that the revised plan reflects the completion in August of the pre-financing of expected EU funds, which temporarily lifted the central government's financing need "significantly". The EU will cover those items later through grants and loans, the release said.

Gross issuance and how much is done

Because of the higher deficit and a planned increase in liquid reserves linked in part to EU funding, the ÁKK increased gross planned issuance to HUF 20,414 billion. By the end of September it had completed 78 per cent of that gross financing need, ahead of a pro-rata pace, its third-quarter report published on 2 October shows.

Progress differs by funding pillar. The agency had completed 77 per cent of planned retail securities issuance and close to 82 per cent of forint institutional financing. Foreign-currency bond issuance for the year is finished, and the third pillar stood at 69 per cent, slightly behind a pro-rata path because close to EUR 3 billion of funding from the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility will only arrive in December, the report said.

The foreign-currency programme was closed with a EUR 3 billion dual-tranche benchmark in July, Hungary's second euro deal of the year. The 5-year and 10-year tranches of EUR 1.5 billion each attracted demand of up to three times the amount issued, which allowed the issuer to tighten pricing considerably, the ÁKK's release of 6 July said.

Demand, yields and reserves

The agency described third-quarter auctions as marked by strong demand even as Hungarian yields rose in parallel with yields in developed markets. It said in the report that the narrowing of Hungarian spreads despite a turbulent external environment was a sign of market trust.

The state's liquid reserves reached an all-time high of HUF 5,500 billion in July and were expected to stay high until the end of the quarter, the ÁKK said. It said in the September statement that no material change in strategy is planned for the rest of the year and that its benchmarks are unchanged, and noted that all three main rating agencies rate Hungary investment grade.

The agency publishes a three-month forint issuance plan every month and updates it until the middle of each month. The latest version, covering October to December 2026, was posted on 15 October.

Why the central bank is watching the fiscal path

The larger deficit matters for monetary policy as well as for bond supply. At their 22 September meeting, members of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank's Monetary Council agreed that Hungary's risk assessment would be driven mainly by expectations about the fiscal path and euro adoption, as well as the external market environment, the minutes said. Several members said uncertainty about the fiscal outlook might ease in the autumn, which they said was important for risk premia.

The council kept the base rate at 5.50 per cent at that meeting, with all 11 members voting for the hold, the minutes show. The minutes also record members' view that the risk premia on Hungarian assets were relatively stable.

For investors, the arithmetic of the revision is straightforward. With 78 per cent of a HUF 20,414 billion gross requirement completed by the end of September, about HUF 4,490 billion of gross issuance remains for the fourth quarter on the ÁKK's own figures, part of which will be met by the RRF disbursement expected in December. The agency's monthly issuance plans will show how the remaining forint supply is spread across auctions and retail products.