Kazakhstan rate preview: committee median implies 25 more basis points by year-end

The National Bank of Kazakhstan will announce its next base rate decision at 12:00 Astana time on 23 October, according to its 4 September press release. The rate stands at 16.25 per cent after a cut of 50 basis points, annual inflation slowed to 9.3 per cent in September, and the committee's median projection implies 25 basis points of further easing by the end of the year, according to its summary of deliberations. Only one meeting follows, on 4 December.

What the September data show

Annual inflation slowed to 9.3 per cent in September from 9.8 per cent in August, and monthly inflation was 0.6 per cent for the third month running, according to the Bureau of National Statistics and the National Bank. Food inflation eased to 8.5 per cent from 9.5 per cent and non-food inflation to 11.0 per cent from 11.4 per cent, while paid services held at 8.9 per cent. Over the month, food prices fell 0.1 per cent, non-food prices rose 1.1 per cent and paid services rose 1.0 per cent.

Household expectations eased too. Median expected inflation over the next 12 months was 11.8 per cent in September, from 12.1 per cent in August, according to the household survey workbook the bank published on 9 October. In its macroeconomic survey of 15 October, which covers 14 organisations and excludes National Bank forecasts, analysts cut their 2026 inflation forecast to 9.5 per cent from 10 per cent and the median 2026 base rate to 15.9 per cent from 16.0 per cent.

The tenge, whose appreciation the summary of deliberations describes as having a significant disinflationary effect, has given back part of its gain. The bank's foreign exchange bulletin said the currency rose 4.6 per cent in September to 440.49 per dollar. The official rate was 439.37 on 30 September and 454.14 on 16 October, which makes the dollar 3.4 per cent more expensive in tenge, a Data Desk calculation. That is within 0.4 per cent of the 455.86 set on 4 September, the day of the last decision.

What the committee signalled

The committee cut the rate by 50 basis points to 16.25 per cent in September and said the scope for further reductions was limited, according to the press release. In the summary of deliberations, the median estimate for the end-2026 base rate was unchanged at 16.0 per cent, with individual estimates from 15.8 per cent to 16.8 per cent, against 15.0 per cent to 17.0 per cent in the previous round. Medians for 2027 and 2028 rose to 13.5 per cent and 11.0 per cent, from 13.0 per cent and 10.8 per cent. The document says the trajectory is not a commitment to keep the rate at those levels.

The arithmetic is tight, a Data Desk calculation from those figures. A cut of 25 basis points on 23 October would put the rate at 16.00 per cent, the committee's median. A cut of 50 basis points would take it to 15.75 per cent, below the lowest year-end estimate recorded in September. This year's moves, according to the decision schedule, were cuts from 18.00 per cent to 17.00 per cent in June, to 16.75 per cent in July and to 16.25 per cent in September. The 16.25 per cent rate is 6.95 percentage points above September annual inflation, a Data Desk calculation, and the governor said on 4 September that the committee is committed to maintaining moderately tight monetary conditions.

The committee also flagged the autumn. Annual inflation was likely to keep falling in September, it said in the summary, but dynamics could change from October because the moratorium on increases in utility tariffs and fuel prices introduced in autumn 2025 leaves a low base and raises the likelihood of an acceleration. It said this called for a cautious approach to future decisions.

Base effects and the October reading

The 2025 base supports that caution. Monthly inflation was 0.5 per cent in October 2025, 0.8 per cent in November and 0.9 per cent in December. If monthly inflation stays at 0.6 per cent, annual inflation would edge up to about 9.4 per cent in October and fall to about 8.9 per cent in December, a Data Desk calculation using rounded published rates. Reaching the survey's 9.5 per cent, if measured the same way, would take about 0.8 per cent a month on average, and the 10 per cent midpoint of the bank's 9 per cent to 11 per cent forecast would take about 0.95 per cent. The forecast is a December-on-December change, according to the bank's Monetary Policy Report.

Recent fourth-quarter patterns give a range of outcomes, on the same method and using the monthly tables in the bureau's bulletins for October, November and December. The 2025 pattern would leave annual inflation at 9.3 per cent in December, the 2023 pattern of 0.7 per cent, 1.0 per cent and 0.9 per cent would give 9.7 per cent, and the 2024 pattern of 0.9 per cent in each month would give 9.8 per cent.

The bureau lists 2 November as the date of its next release, so the committee will decide on 23 October without October data. Economist Ruslan Sultanov told The Astana Times on 3 September that "This coming fall will be a serious test" for whether disinflation continues once the seasonal fall in food prices ends. The 4 September text called the scope for further cuts limited, and any change in that wording on 23 October will be read against it.