S&P keeps Romania at BBB- with a negative outlook in place for 20 months

S&P Global Ratings affirmed Romania's sovereign ratings at BBB- for long-term debt and A-3 for short-term debt and kept the outlook negative on 2 October, the rating history published by Romania's Ministry of Finance shows.

The affirmation covers both foreign and local currency, and BBB- is the lowest investment-grade rating on S&P's scale. The ministry updated its rating tables for all three major agencies on 13 October, as the file names on its sovereign rating page indicate. Taken together, they show Romania sitting at the bottom rung of investment grade with every major agency, and with a negative outlook at each of them.

Twenty months on negative outlook at S&P

S&P moved its outlook on Romania from stable to negative on 24 January 2025 and has affirmed the ratings four times since October 2025: on 10 October 2025, 3 April 2026, 15 May 2026 and 2 October 2026, the S&P table shows. The two reviews in the spring of 2026 came six weeks apart. Before 2025, S&P had kept Romania at BBB- with a stable outlook through a run of semi-annual affirmations from April 2021 to October 2024.

The October affirmation therefore extends a negative outlook that has now lasted more than 20 months. The agency has not acted on it, but it has not removed it either, which leaves Romanian bonds exposed to a downgrade decision at each scheduled review. S&P's previous negative-outlook period ran from 10 December 2019 to 16 April 2021, when it was revised back to stable (S&P history).

Fitch and Moody's

Fitch Ratings rates Romania BBB- for long-term foreign and local currency debt and F3 for short-term debt, with a negative outlook and a country ceiling of BBB+ (the ministry's Fitch table). Fitch changed its outlook to negative on 17 December 2024. The most recent Fitch actions listed in the table published on 13 October are affirmations in 2025, including one dated 12 August 2025.

Moody's rates Romania Baa3, its lowest investment-grade rating, in foreign and local currency, with a negative outlook, the ministry's Moody's table shows. Moody's affirmed the rating in August 2026, after an affirmation in September 2025 and an outlook change to negative in March 2025. Moody's country ceilings for Romania are A2 in both foreign and local currency, short-term ratings are P-3, and bank deposit ceilings are Baa3 in foreign currency and A3 in local currency.

What the tables mean for investors

The three histories show the same pattern: each agency moved Romania to a negative outlook between December 2024 and March 2025, and each has since affirmed the ratings without resolving the outlook. Fitch moved first, in December 2024, followed by S&P in January 2025 and Moody's in March 2025 (Fitch, S&P and Moody's tables).

The current episode is longer than the last one at two of the agencies. Fitch's previous negative outlook ran from 17 April 2020 until it was revised to stable on 24 March 2023 (table). Moody's moved to negative in April 2020 and back to stable in October 2021, its history shows. S&P's ran from December 2019 to April 2021. In each case the outlooks were resolved without a change to the long-term rating.

The longer view is one of stability at the low end. Moody's has rated Romania Baa3 since raising it in October 2006, its history shows, and S&P's table records BBB- at every action from October 2017 to October 2026. The ministry's page publishes the histories as downloadable files rather than as press releases, and it does not reproduce the agencies' rationales.

The next scheduled reviews will show whether the outlooks turn into rating changes or are revised back to stable, as they were after the 2020 episode. Until one of the agencies acts, Romania carries negative outlooks from all three at the lowest investment-grade notch, a position it has held since March 2025, on the ministry's published histories.