Non-residents' lira deposits in Türkiye fall for a second month as banks' short-term foreign debt eases

Non-residents' Turkish lira deposits at banks in Türkiye fell by 4.8 per cent in August to the equivalent of USD 25.3 billion, the second monthly decline since the end of June, according to the August short-term external debt statistics of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT). The fall pulled banks' short-term external debt down by 1.6 per cent to USD 76.3 billion, while the country's total short-term external debt was almost unchanged at USD 176.6 billion, up USD 25 million on July, according to the bank's monthly developments note.

The figures were published on 19 October, as Aydınlık reported that day. They cover debt with an original maturity of one year or less, valued in US dollars at the end of each month.

The figures

The table below is taken from Table 1 and Table 4 of the CBRT's data file for August, in millions of US dollars. End of 2025 is the fourth-quarter figure.

Item (USD million)	End 2025	End June 2026	End July 2026	End August 2026
Total short-term external debt	167,188	170,370	176,539	176,564
Central bank	24,965	23,094	23,143	23,698
Banks	72,401	74,581	77,471	76,252
of which loans from abroad	8,562	7,977	9,507	9,226
of which non-residents' lira deposits	23,667	26,761	26,617	25,349
Other sectors	68,176	71,905	74,496	74,579
of which cash loans	5,685	8,340	9,430	10,049
Lira-denominated debt, USD equivalent	39,621	44,565	45,635	45,259

Banks: lira deposits lead the decline

Banks' short-term external debt fell by USD 1,219 million in August. Non-residents' lira deposits fell by USD 1,268 million, from USD 26,617 million to USD 25,349 million, more than the whole decline. Short-term loans that banks received from abroad fell by 3.0 per cent to USD 9.2 billion and deposits of non-resident banks were broadly flat at USD 19.7 billion, while foreign-currency deposits of non-residents outside the banking sector rose by 1.7 per cent to USD 22.0 billion, according to the note.

Part of the fall in lira deposits is currency translation. The CBRT's currency table gives the lira-denominated stock both in lira and in dollars: TRY 2,159,786 million (USD 45,635 million) in July and TRY 2,175,745 million (USD 45,259 million) in August. On Counting House's arithmetic, that implies about TRY 47.33 per dollar at the end of July and TRY 48.07 at the end of August, a lira depreciation of about 1.6 per cent. Converted at those implied rates, non-residents' lira deposits fell from about TRY 1,260 billion to about TRY 1,219 billion, a decline of about 3.3 per cent in lira terms. The decline is therefore real, not only a valuation effect. The release does not say which depositors reduced their balances.

The August reading follows a sharp rise earlier in the year. Non-residents' lira deposits stood at USD 23,667 million at the end of 2025 and reached USD 26,761 million at the end of June, and even after two monthly falls they remain 7.1 per cent above the end-2025 level. In the weeks that followed, foreign investors' holdings of Turkish securities also fell, as the CBRT's weekly data showed in our report on non-resident holdings, and in September and October the central bank adjusted its liquidity and reserve rules for banks, as reported here.

Companies borrow more in cash

Other sectors, mainly non-financial companies, added 0.1 per cent to USD 74.6 billion. Trade credit tied to foreign trade fell by 0.8 per cent to USD 64.5 billion, but cash loans rose by 6.6 per cent to USD 10.0 billion. On Counting House's arithmetic, cash loans are 76.8 per cent higher than at the end of 2025, when they stood at USD 5,685 million. Almost all of the August stock, USD 9,623 million, is owed by the private sector. Short-term debt securities, shown in the creditor breakdown, rose to USD 6,444 million from USD 5,215 million in July and USD 2,244 million at the end of 2025.

The central bank's own short-term external liabilities, all of them deposits, rose by USD 555 million to USD 23,698 million, and general government short-term debt rose to USD 2,035 million from USD 1,429 million. Together with the small rise at other sectors, those increases offset the fall at commercial banks, which is why the total barely moved.

What falls due within a year

On a remaining-maturity basis, which adds long-term debt falling due within 12 months, the stock was USD 243.3 billion at the end of August. Banks account for USD 112,770 million of that, including USD 45,744 million of loans, about five times their loans on an original-maturity basis. Other sectors account for USD 94,657 million. The currency mix of the original-maturity stock was 34.0 per cent US dollars, 27.1 per cent euros, 25.6 per cent lira and 13.3 per cent other currencies, according to the note.

The August data predate the Monetary Policy Committee's 22 October decision to cut the policy rate to 36 per cent, so they say nothing about how non-resident lira deposits responded to the cut. The September figures will show whether the outflow from lira deposits continued.

Method: all stocks are as published by the CBRT in its August 2026 short-term external debt tables and developments note. Changes since end-2025, implied exchange rates and lira-terms deposit values are Counting House calculations from those tables; the CBRT does not publish a lira value for non-residents' lira deposits in this release.